Snowovereaction

This morning I left JFK airport in New York (it is kind of cool to post from 33,000 fee somewhere over South Dakota) amidst the first flakes of an impending snowstorm. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has taken a lot of heat for the way the city prepared for and responded to the post Christmas Day Blizzard that dumped more than 20 inches of snow up and down the entire East Coast of the United States. In particular NYC residents outside of Manhattan complained that it took as a long as four days or more for them to have their ‘tertiary’ streets plowed.

The Mayor’s initial response was to say that New York City would be fine and people would deal with the situation because New Yorkers are tough minded. After having his feet put to the fire the Mayor later admitted that the city’s response was less than adequate and investigations would be taking place. The head of Emergency Services was removed yesterday.

So in the wake of ‘Snowmeggadon’ as some people are referring to it, today’s predicted storm (supposedly 2-3 inches in New York City and as much as 6 inches in the outlying suburbs) has sparked early action and in my opinion ‘Snowvereaction’. I heard on the radio of school closings and early dismissals. Airlines were allowing passengers to re-book flights at no fee to leave before or after the storm.

But not to invoke my inner Ed Rendell – are we all a bunch of wimps? A 2-6 inch snowfall in early January should hardly be a big deal to those of us that live in the Northeastern United States. We all understand that a 20+ inch snowstorm (or blizzard) is different than a measly 2-6 inch snowstorm? Are we afraid that the weather forecasters could miss it by that much and we could be hit with a sneaky foot of snow when the predictions were for a lot less?

The problem is that people overreacted after the first event by forgetting that in this budget conscious era 400+ NYC sanitation works had been laid off and there were fewer workers out there to help clean up the big mess. Everyone says they want a balanced budget but then those same people get annoyed when the loss of service impacts their individual lives. To highlights matters after the blizzard, while Manhattan was still a mess days after the storm in no way did it compare to the outer boroughs of The Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island where there are neighborhoods where snow is still being cleaned up from that storm. So now we will see over protection and overreaction.

New Yorkers and East Coasters have proven they can roll with the punches as well if not better than most. Here’s hoping people can keep a little perspective in mind when they feel the need to complain. We can certainly see better efforts and learn from the past, but knee jerk overreactions are not the answer.

Maybe you don’t agree?

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The CES – Consumer Electronics Show – I am not going – are you?

Every year in January the CES takes place in Las Vegas. This year there is buzz about tablet PCs (more than 50 will be on display), television apps, 3D TV apps and accessories, computer printers (HP apparently has a really cool one coming out), and new payment cards just to name a few. If you want to read a longer article on what’s in store CNET has a nice one – http://bit.ly/gKs0aY. Consumer Reports has a short video that does a nice job of previewing what will be introduced beginning today – http://bit.ly/gMXZ2W

I’ve never been to the CES although I have been to Vegas more than a dozen times (most of those times were before I was 22) but only once was business a part of the program. Las Vegas in January is far from any kind of tropical destination with temperatures in the 50’s during the day and 30’s at night. But hey – it’s Vegas baby right?

Apple CEO Steve Jobs has made the CES into a platform for unleashing new products. This year is likely to be no different. Ironically the keynote speech is to be made by Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer. Last year 126,000 people attended the 2010 CES – the number of attendees is poised to increase to 140,000 this year. I can only imagine what it must be like to try to get a room in Las Vegas which still is coming back from the devastating 2008 recession.

Americans and citizens of the world are continuing their love affair with technology. The CES plays right into that as it often sets the tone for what will be the hot tech products of the year. There are some (intentionally) badly kept secrets regarding releases of new products (i.e. Verizon’s iPhone), but also hopefully a few surprise announcements that will be intriguing.

I will have Bloomberg TV’s feed on for the next few days in the hope of catching news as it happens and hopefully to get a better sense of the overall atmosphere. And yes I am seriously thinking about attending the 2012 CES show just to do it one time. After all – hey it’s Vegas baby!

Are you going to the CES this year and if you are not, why not and would you like to?

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Technology fifty years ago and fifty years from now

100 years is a still more than a lifetime and a reasonable barometer to look at how things change. Now that we are in 2011 I thought it would be interesting to look back 50 years to get a sense of how some things have changed and whether or not that information can help us imagine what things might look like in 2061 – fifty years from now. I note imagine because I am not one to try to predict what things would look like 50 years from now – it’s just too difficult. I am often challenged by what things will look like a year from now (but that is infinitely easier!).

From www.thepeoplehistory.com website –
– 1961 saw newly inaugurated U.S. President John F. Kennedy ask Congress for $ 531 million to
finance putting a man on the moon
– The world population reached 4 billion. In 2011 it is over 6 billion.
– Yuri Gagarin is the first human in space.
– The first In-flight movie is shown on TWA (which would go out of business 30 years later in 1991)
– The first electric toothbrush is produced by Squibb Co.
– Alan Sheppard makes first US Space Flight
– Niagara Falls starts producing hydroelectric power
– The first quasar is discovered by Allan Sandage at Mt Palomar, California

Cost of Living 1961

Yearly Inflation Rate USA 1.07%
Average Cost of new house $12,500
Average Income per year $5,315
Cost of a gallon of Gas 27 cents
Average Cost of a new car $2,850 (today you can easily spend more than that on a personal computer)
Bacon for 1LB 67 cents
Eggs per dozen 30 cents

Technology in 1961

– 1961 there were no mobile phones (at least none commercially available), no personal computers,
Walt Disney’s Wonderful World of Color debuted in September of 1961 prompting consumers to go
and buy color televisions.
– A telephone party line was considered a social network tool.
– IBM introduced the Selectric typewriter Golfball

If adults in 1961 looked back fifty years to 1911 the changes seen over that fifty year period, (think Wright Brothers, the increasing popularity of the automobile, and a time before world wars) could be considered some of the most dramatic in the area of technology in all of human history.

This week the annual Consumer Electronic Show is happening in Las Vegas (January 6-9). The buzz is on new tablets from HP and RIM, 3D televisions, and TV apps for your mobile device just to name a few. Most of the people living in 1961 could not have predicted the way things would be in 2011. (Although Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov foresaw a number of advances that are popular today).
For that reason there is little chance of accurately predicting developments in technology over the next fifty years. But I invite you to share your thoughts and predictions on how things might be in 2061!

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Why I don’t make New Year’s Resolutions

Reading and hearing about people’s New Year’s resolutions always amuses me. But I also wonder why people go public with a ‘resolution’ for the New Year? How many times have you failed to deliver on your own resolutions?

Think of the typical New Year’s Resolutions. Losing ten or more pounds is often at the top of the list. Go to the gym three times or more a week is another resolution that I hear often. The failure rate of ‘getting in shape’ can be seen when you count the number of people at the gym on January 2nd versus March 1st.

A new year does offer possibilities for new beginnings. You can look back on the prior year – the highs and lows, and refocus and rededicate yourself to things you’d like to have done or done more effectively. But at the same time resolutions like ‘spending more time with the family’ or ‘being a nicer person’ are difficult to quantify to say the least.

And why would you want to start a new year saddling yourself with a resolution that has a failure rate of 97% after 30 days? http://bit.ly/dSpk6h . I don’t understand how making a New Year’s resolution doomed to fail is productive or anything more than an irrefutable statement. After all who could question your own resolve?

So here is my suggestion – don’t do it! Try something new for a change, resolve to not make a resolution and continue to do the things we all should have been doing all along – just try to be a better person day by day.

If you don’t make a New Year’s resolution that is doomed to fail, won’t that be a better start to your year in the first place?

Happy New Year folks. I wish you health, happiness and prosperity. And in that order. However if you’ve got some great ideas for a New Year’s resolution that can work – by all means let us know!

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The day my Office Internet World Stood Still

I’m writing this on a mid-Monday afternoon just after the end of the Christmas Day Blizzard here in the Connecticut. We’ve had more than 18 inches of snow and the winds have been fierce for more than 24 hours. Consequently trees are down in the area, I’m sure some people are without power and here at the office while we are with power we are without internet access.

Besides me a few hearty souls made it to the office only to be thwarted by the lack of an internet connection. While we have had the internet go down for a few hours at a time in the past I am convinced that today the impact of no web connection is greater than it has ever been before. Sure there are telephones but in this week between Christmas and New Year’s many people are out of the office on vacation plus now even more are unable to get there due to commuter rail lines being shut down today and other travel challenges in the New York City area.

How do business people keep in touch when they are out of the office? Most likely via email with maybe a little SMS texting mixed in. had planned to work on a presentation today (I still can do that but was intending to upload some web links into my presentation), do some research, catch up on some archived webinars, and do some site research on behalf of clients and prospects.

What’s even more frustrating is that we have a backup plan. Great idea right? Not when the backup DSL plan does not work. So until we figured out how to get the backup plan up and working I was reduced to the 3rd screen of my smartphone which in this case is yet another backup. It worked for the two hours it took to get the backup plan up and running. At least I could keep track of anyone that might be reaching out via email.

The corporate reliance on an internet connection has become such that without one it almost does not make sense to come to the office. What will happen when people have their documents in the ‘cloud’? We tend to think of the internet as an always available commodity. But I was reminded that is not always the case.

Which leads me to another question – Where and when was the tipping point for communications such that without a web connection people cannot work effectively?

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Consumers say ‘Dont track on me’

I saw an article last week in the DM News http://bit.ly/euzIOK noting that two-thirds of “consumers oppose online behavioral tracking and targeted advertising based on it, according to a Gallup/USAToday poll conducted earlier this month. Consumers were surveyed about the subject days after the Federal Trade Commission recommended a “Do-Not-Track” policy that would allow Web browsers to opt out of all online tracking by third-parties.

Gallup found that 67% of consumers said advertisers should not be allowed to present ads based on their Internet use, while only 30% said marketers should be allowed to do so. Thirty-five percent said tracking by marketers is justified because it allows free access to websites, and 61% said free access was not worth the loss of privacy.

Ninety percent say they do not pay much attention to online ads, while 61% said they have noticed targeted ads based on websites they have previously visited.

Taking issue with the tone of the questions in the survey, Jerry Cerasale, SVP of government affairs at the Direct Marketing Association, said the results pose a challenge for marketers. They need to educate consumers about what behavioral targeting is, and its value, he said.

“The question starts with Do-Not-Track…The request itself gives a negative connotation,” he said. “We look at it as an educational challenge.”

The poll also found that consumers are willing to allow some tracking, as long as it is their choice. Although 37% of adults would allow no tracking at all, 47% would allow tracking from advertisers they choose. The segments of consumers more amenable to opt-in tracking are younger and wealthier, according to the poll. More than half (57%) of adults ages 18 to 34 would allow tracking by selected advertisers, while 53% of those with annual incomes of $30,000 to $74,999 would do so” Gallup surveyed just over 1,000 consumers December 10th – 12th.

I agree with Mr. Cerasale’s point that the questions itself is a loaded one. When the discussion is about on line tracking that feels creepy. However, and I have been harping on this for a long time, when the discussion is about marketing relevancy and how behavioral targeting will save consumers time the conversation is entirely different.

Those with unlimited time can beg to differ but until there is evidence that 3rd party advertisers have individual consumer information and are using it in a personal way I will remain convinced that serving me relevant ads beats my being served feminine hygiene product ads and my daughter being served ads for Cialis and Viagra.

And you?

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Shopping at the Mall for the Holidays – all the more reason to shop online

I will readily admit that I am not much of a shopper. If anything I am a buyer which means when I go into a retail establishment my mission is to go directly to what I came for, go directly to the checkout line and get out as quickly as possible.

That plan does not work out so well during the holidays. Yesterday I went into Macy’s in the Stamford Town Center Mall. It was around lunchtime. (Yes I know I have to be nuts). Once in the parking garage it took nearly fifteen minutes to park the car and then only because we saw someone getting into their car to leave and I backed up almost touching the front bumper of the very disappointed driver behind me who thought she had struck gold.

Once inside the mall my wife and I walked directly to Macy’s and directly to the area that had the items what we were looking. We noticed the long line at the cash register and strategized that once we had an idea of what we were buying the other would stand on line. I also noticed that the whole area was surprisingly messy and unkempt. Items were strewn all over the place, mismatched as well. There were a few employees rearranging the items that had been ‘dislodged’.

Everything appeared to be on sale – although it was difficult to tell exactly how much things were being marked down at times. And there was something called a ‘morning special’ which apparently was still in effect even though it was nearly 1 P.M. The one clerk at the register was a very pleasant young guy who handled customers one at a time with particular sense of urgency even though there were no less than six people in line to buy something at any moment. He did connect well with the customers in that he did not rush anyone off and took his time to be sure that each customer had as much time as they felt they needed. After all they had waited fifteen minutes in line.

I’ve shopped a couple of times in retail stores this holiday season and all in all they were experiences that were fine but I have no real need to repeat them. I signed up for Amazon Prime this year and it was a good idea since ‘free shipping’ is offered for $ 79.00 for the entire year and I’ve bought enough items to avoid more shipping charges than $ 79.00. I am certain that some of my retail reticence is gender-related and I am far from being agoraphobic, but when it comes to holiday shopping I think I will just stick with clicking.

Have a great holiday and thanks for reading!

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Blackberry retail stores – BORING?

An article on ‘How Amazon Works Around iTunes’ in last Friday’s Wall Street Journal http://on.wsj.com/dJ9SWW made me think about how Apple has done such a great job with their retail stores and how Blackberry hasn’t. If you are wondering (as I was) about whether or not Blackberry even has retail stores – they have a few. All I could find out was that there is at least one that opened in 2008 in the Atlanta-Hartsfield Airport, a few others this year including the Philadelphia and Minneapolis Airports and one in China. There would appear to be room for expansion.

But what exactly would be in the Blackberry retail store? A bunch of Blackberry’s and cases and power cords. My sense is it would be nothing like the experience of going into an Apple retail store.

As a dedicated BB user I like everyone else know that the BB App store is lacking in choices. So if it is an experience anything like that found online I would have no reason to ever go there. In fact I am often unpleasantly surprised at the fact that there are fewer apps for my BB Storm 2 than there are for older models. Why would a BB retail store be any different?

The maker of Blackberry – Research in Motion (RIM), reported solid performance for Q3 2010. The Canadian mobile phone maker had nearly $ 4 billion in revenue which represented an 11% increase over Q3. The company reported that more than 10 million Smartphones were shipped in Q3 2010 http://bit.ly/7rAAzQ .
Oftentimes my somewhat smug Apple iPhone users snicker at my mention of any difficulties with the BB platform or the phone itself. As if Apple could do no wrong. We all know that’s not really the case but when it comes to innovation and user-friendliness Blackberry still has a way to go. They have even further to go when it comes to putting out useful applications. RIM continually notes new developments such as the release of the Blackberry 6 platform http://bit.ly/95owkw which supposedly will make it easier to develop applications. I am still waiting to see the improvements.

Blackberry has already lost its overall dominance in the smartphone market to the combination of Apple and the Google Android platforms. A Blackberry retail stores could be cool, but likely won’t be.
Have you ever been in a Blackberry retail store? Would you go in there if you saw one?

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Lindsey Vonn gets more than her 15 minutes


I’ve been posting regularly on my blog for over two years now and by far the most visited (and I hope read) post is the one I did earlier this year on American skier Lindsey Vonn. In that post from February 2010 http://bit.ly/h42aCA I included a couple of photos from the Sports Illustrated shoot Ms. Vonn took part in. One was of Vonn skiing, the other was of Vonn in a bikini.

The amount of traffic generated from this post is stunning to me. Are people really that curious about Lindsey Vonn? She is a terrific skier and had an excellent if not slightly disappointing Olympics in terms of winning gold medals in every event she in which she competed. A high standard to say the least.

Yet ten months later (skiing season in full swing) people are still reading that post from February. I’d like to believe it’s due to my being a writer of compelling content but I suspect it’s the bikini shot that might be driving the traffic. (Or stopping traffic?).

Ms. Vonn won another big race yesterday and she is at the top of sports news wires quite often. Just for a laugh I searched photos of Lindsey Vonn http://bit.ly/hHzaim – it seems to me as seriously as Ms. Vonn should be taken as a professional athlete she also understands that her popularity is ‘enhanced’ by provocative photos of her all over the internet. Should she be faulted for that?

I’m impressed by Ms. Vonn’s ability to stay in the forefront of the public eye. Winning races and competing at the highest level is her true contribution. After all if she weren’t winning she’d just be another Anna Kournikova.

Is Lindsey selling out by capitalizing on the fact that she is an attractive female athlete at the peak of her physical abilities (double entendre completely intended!)?

Am I selling out because I am writing about it again to see if my blog traffic increases as a result of this follow up post?

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Denny’s does some interesting marketing things but are they effective?

The past two years Denny’s restaurants have offered an interesting promotion the Tuesday after the Super Bowl – a Free ‘Grand Slam’ breakfast. It created a great deal of buzz in 2009 and again this year and reportedly cost less than $ 1.50 each when you factor in that many people still had to pay for coffee ($ 1.85) and/or juice ($ 1.99).

What continues to be a mystery is how this promotion created new customers (I assume that it did) and how loyal have those new customers become? My marketing intuition suggests the tactic should have been successful but without an attribution model it’s a gray area to everyone except those at Denny’s and Denny’s marketing agencies (or so I hope).

More recently Denny’s has teamed up with AARP and reports are that the discount program http://bit.ly/eSeIh1 has drawn more than 2 million members. AARP members who show their membership cards at Denny’s restaurants on any day of the week between 4 and 10 p.m. get 20% off the total check amount. The card also allows members and their guests to purchase a cup of coffee for $1 per person on any day, 24 hours a day.

Again I really like the idea and imagine that it will have a high probability of success. But how is it being measured? I expect that Denny’s would be measuring the lifetime value (LTV) of the new customers these promotions have brought into the funnel. The promotion is seemingly also a smart one for AARP as it delivers added value to its members (of which I am one but I was totally unaware of this promotion – hmmm).

Since Denny’s continues to do out-of-the ordinary promotions it’s easy to surmise that they must be working to some degree. After all like the person who goes to the doctor and says ‘Doctor it hurts when I do this’ and the doctors says ‘Stop doing that’, Denny’s has to know the promotions have worked to some degree or why continue them, right?

How about Denny’s sharing the numbers so the rest of us can see how truly effective these campaigns have been over a broader scale? I’d like to think that the marketing community would be eager to have Denny’s share what would be very valuable information.

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