Why Foursquare will win and Groupon will lose

Posted on June 24, 2011 by markkolier

I read Wednesday morning that 75% of all Foursquare activity is performed by 5% of its members. So it’s safe to say that Foursquare has a long way to go to attain the type of regular usage it desires. Since its launch I have been a somewhat regular user of the check-in feature on Foursquare. I have remained interested in how people might use the platform.

What I have noticed recently is that Foursquare has enhanced the platform by offering specials (25 often) in the general area in which you are checking in. I think this is a potentially game changing asset and just may be the launching pad for a meteoric rise in use of the Foursquare platform. On Thursday Foursquare Labs Dennis Crowley announced a partnership http://nyti.ms/iHp6WX with American Express http://bit.ly/mDmbiW to further offer value to Foursquare users.

Up until this point Foursquare has not done much more than offer the ability to show friends within the network a person’s actual location, (or close to your actual location) when you check-in. If you check-in to a particular place multiple times each future check-in brings you closer and closer to being named ‘Mayor’ of that particular place. Being a ‘Mayor’ could possibly bring you some free drinks/gifts/offers so there is some possible intrinsic value. Overall the entire Foursquare platform was not very compelling.

The growth of nearby deal offers once you check in on Foursquare provides some of the missing ingredients for a more robust and compelling reason for people to take a new look at Foursquare. I wish I could say the same for the daily deal sites led by Groupon.com and Living Social.

A very interesting research paper written by Utpal M. Dholakia an associate professor of management at the Jones Graduate School of Business at Rice University focuses on a survey of 324 business that conducted a daily deal promotion between August 2009 and March 2011 http://bit.ly/jTsEj1. Nearly half of the business polled indicated that they would run another daily deal promotion which means more than half the businesses would not.

I’ve questioned (as have many) the effectiveness in driving positive transactional customer behavior through daily deal promotions. The unknown metric is the increase in consumer awareness (branding) via the use of daily deal promotions. As with any advertising campaign a certain amount of immeasurable faith has to be considered to be part of the equation (see broadcast television).

There are other reasons a business might continue to use daily deal promotions such as keeping its staff busy during slow periods rather than risk losing them to other establishments. Professor Dholakia further points out that 5 sites – Groupon, LivingSocial, OpenTable (which I would not have considered a daily deal type site), Travelzoo, and BuyWithMe (I was not familiar with this one), that have the largest market share show no real statistically significant differences in incidence of profitable and unprofitable daily deal promotions. While the sample is smaller than one would like to see the data appears to be pretty rock solid.

Groupon.com and other daily deal sites will end up merely being another advertising vehicle and there’s nothing wrong with that. But if you are like me you might want to question the legs of a prospective $15 billion valuation in its upcoming IPO. Meanwhile Foursquare is sort of under the radar a bit while it builds its platform on what I feel is a better value proposition.

Last month on Kara Swishers excellent AllthingsD blog http://www.AllthingsD.com Liz Gannes reported that Foursquare and Groupon were planning a distribution deal – http://bit.ly/kjuUIA – but no further word has been heard about it. The longer it takes for a deal to happen I think the less likely Foursquare would have interest.

What do you think? Is Groupon a darling or a dud-to-be? How about Foursquare?

Posted in Advertising, Innovation, Marketing stuff, Mobile Communication, Social Media, Technology | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

A first hand report on the new M-8 MTA rail cars

Posted on June 22, 2011 by markkolier

I had read about the long overdue M8 rail cars and heard about them from some NY area commuters but until last night on the 9:37 New Haven line train I had only been able to wonder what the fancy new MTA rail cars were really like.

First of all there is a lot of red. Red faux-leather seats, a red floor. Since the New Haven line has red as its base color scheme that would make sense and I imagine any new M-7 rail cars on Metro-North line trains would be correspondingly blue. The train aisles are wider (good) and the seats a bit wider as well. The cars are built by Kawasaki and will replace the current fleet of over 200 M-2 rail cars some of which are nearly 40 years old.

The air conditioning worked well (I have been on a few regular trains recently where there was little or no A/C) and the restrooms (I had to see for myself) were clean. Outside the restrooms there was a little indicator to show whether or not they were occupied or not. I noticed the restrooms received a lot more traffic than is normally the case. I guess people were curious and more comfortable with the new facilities as opposed to waiting to avoid using the train restroom.

While the M-8 trains can reach speeds of 90 MPH my journey took exactly the same amount of time that it always does. On the ancient New Haven line at least I will never expect the trains to approach 90 MPH. There are storage hooks for bicycles in the disabled rider area of each rail car.

There was no Wi-Fi availability. I was somewhat aware of that but held out faint hope that there might be a few cars testing Wi-Fi access. After all on airplanes the Wi-Fi units are relatively heavyweight and thus cause an increased use of fuel. But the airlines are soldiering on offering more and more Wi-Fi connections while flying. I cannot understand why new train rail cars would be built without Wi-Fi access – can you?

There are no power outlets either. How difficult would it have been to install a half dozen power outlets in each car?

There’s no doubt the new M-8 cars are a much needed improvement over the 1970’s and 1980’s cars currently in use. But I cannot help thinking there were a few things left on the drawing board that could have been implemented but were not.

How long will it take before the aura of newness wears off?

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Do clothes still make the man? Is today’s attire too casual?

Posted on June 20, 2011 by markkolier

My mother used to tell me that you could always tell a well dressed man by his watch and his shoes. That left a big impression on me and I still think about that frequently. For many years earlier in my professional career I wore a suit to work every day but it’s been quite a while since I wore a suit regularly. The world and in particular the United States has become a much more casually dressed place. I am not convinced this is a positive trend.

I am not suggesting in any way that I am planning to go back to wearing a suit and tie (or even a suit without a tie which is a trend that has been popular for a decade already) particularly during the long hot summer. However I know that when I do dress more formally – that is no jeans, nice shirt, nice shoes and no tie it does add to my overall sense of self-confidence.

When I travel (frequently) I always bring a sport coat if I am not wearing a suit. It’s always been my opinion that you get better treatment on an airline if you put a little effort into your appearance. Have you found this to be true? So many people seem to prefer to travel in stretch pants and loose fitting clothing so as to be as comfortable as possible. While this makes sense to me I believe you can wear comfortable clothes that do not make you appear like you are on your way to a gym class.

Let’s face it, the world and especially the United States has become a more casually dressed place. Now, trends come and go and it is possible, even likely, that there will be a shift back to more formal dressing at some point in the future. But I feel for the moment the pendulum has swung a bit too far.

Dressing for work has changed as has dressing to go out for dinner. I wonder if there is any association between the increasingly casually dressed world and being taken seriously. When a man shows up at my office in a suit and tie I take notice – first because it is so rare, and second I appreciate that there was some effort put in to look smart and professional.

I don’t mean to come off as sounding like a tightly wound prude. Around my house a t-shirt and shorts is standard attire when I am not working. And for those that work out of their homes I am not suggesting they dress if they are going out (although I imagine it would make a home office denizen feel different). However a little more effort would go a long way as far as I am concerned.

My mother also used to say if you can’t play good – look good. I smile when I think about that as well – whether on the tennis court, golf course or whatever sport I might be playing I try to put a little more effort into my appearance because it makes me feel like I have a better chance to play well. Yes it’s all in my head. And that’s the point.

What do you think? Are things ok just the way they are or could people try a little harder when it comes to their appearance?

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Now that hockey and basketball are done the NFL is moving back to sanity

Posted on June 17, 2011 by markkolier

Somehow this year in the U.S. the National Hockey League (NHL) season outlasted the National Basketball Association season (NBA). The Boston Bruins of the NHL won their first Stanley Cup Championship in nearly 40 years on Wednesday night. This came three days after the Dallas Mavericks vanquished America’s anti-team the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.

The NHL season started before the NBA season – as it always does – on October 7th, 2010. Ice hockey is a winter sport played outdoors in many places. While I understand the need for television revenue and the fact that after May sweeps there is a dearth of programming, it just does not seem right that there is hockey in mid-June or basketball for that matter.

Now that pro hockey and basketball are done only one of the four major sports (baseball folks) is in season. In fact these are the only 2+ months of the year where there is only one sport in season before the NFL season kicks off in September. But only if there is an NFL season this year that is.

Mired in an owner imposed lockout, the National Football League has been making headlines all throughout the spring under the threat of not having a season because the owners and players cannot work out a new collective bargaining deal on how to share $9 billion of revenue. However this past week there have been rumblings about the two sides coming closer together and potential deal sometime in the next two weeks – ahead of the opening of mid-July NFL training camps.

While players are considering what they would do if there were not a NFL season, repercussions of a non-NFL fall and winter would be much more far reaching. Aside from die-hard American NFL fans missing their favorite television sport (by a wide margin), in a continually difficult economy there would be a large number of non-players and league personnel who would lose the critical income they earn during the NFL season.
The major television and radio networks also would be extremely affected (think about Dish network and its popular NFL package). In fact Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott (who ran women’s tennis and is a very interesting and forward thinking guy) came out earlier this year noting that the Pac-10 might move some of its games to Sundays. College football on Sunday? It happens once in a while but having it regularly would no doubt increase the popularity of college football even more than it already is now.

So now’s the time for all good men (and women) to come to their senses and make a deal so we can have another great NFL season. Not that the NBA is a copycat league but it too has its collective bargaining agreement up for renewal and there have also been discussions about a work stoppage. It’s all part of negotiating today to make discussions public. The prospect of putting more Americans out of work at this time should be something both the NFL and NBA consider and speak to by making their deals. I just wish they’d cut the crap and make a deal.

We just want to watch the games. Does it really matter who wins or loses?

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It’s high time for a digital wallet to be in my pocket

Posted on June 15, 2011 by markkolier

When I travel I always wear a sport coat as it is a good place to put my wallet, keys, passport, sunglasses and mobile phone. However when I am not traveling and the weather outside is akin to a steam bath, like most people I don’t wear a coat. I can handle having my keys, phone and even sunglasses but am aggravated by the fact that my big fat wallet does not fit well in any pocket.

This is not due to a wad of cash or even a multitude of credit cards. I do have credit cards for my businesses and personal but I also have a bunch of other non-credit cards that I carry around for different purposes. For instance a Stop & Shop card is worth carrying now since you get specials by scanning your card when in the store, and at present Shell Oil is running a promotion whereby you insert your Stop & Stop card at the gas station and then receive $.20 off per gallon of gas.

I also have my driver’s license, a Priority Pass airline club card, a Marriott club card, and yes even a library card, (although I rarely go to the library it seems yet is seems the one time I don’t have that library card is when I am actually trying to take out a book). Add a few business cards from the various entities I am a part of and I end up with my big fat (not Greek) wallet.

Since I am not the type to go for the man-purse (not that I have anything against any man that sports one), I have upon occasion taken to pulling out my license and a credit card and leaving my wallet at home during warm weather months. But that is not always a practical solution.

The concept of a digital wallet is nothing new. It’s been around for a number of years now. Sites like Pay Pal http://www.paypal.com would love to have all your transactions conducted via their platform. So would the mobile phone companies for that matter. Bank accounts are linked as are credit cards, driver’s license health card, loyalty card(s), and other ID documents stored on the phone. The Japanese have been using digital wallets for a number of years already.

Digital wallets use something called Electronic Commerce Modeling Language to maintain data security and remove the need to enter customer information each and every time. Google introduced its digital wallet concept last month http://bit.ly/iG2ksG and Microsoft has been developing software for digital wallets for several years.

I am ready right now to shift over to a digital wallet. The thing is even when I have one I still will have to carry around some information like a driver’s license (figuring the policeman will not be impressed by my digital license in every location) or credit card (what if my phone dies or runs out of juice?).

While thin is in when it comes to analog wallets, I look forward to the day they go the way of LP’s.

How about you – will you discard the leather wallet for a digital one?

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Not having a contingency plan is a bad idea

Posted on June 13, 2011 by markkolier

It was nearly 100 degrees on much of the east coast of the United States this past week and Thursday evening the New York City area was hit hard by thunderstorms. The Black Eyed Peas concert was delayed and then cancelled in Central Park. The Yankees were delayed (later succumbing to their hated rival Boston Red Sox).

However it was a train station power outage that reminded me of how so many businesses fail to account for things that can go wrong – and often do. I arrived at the Metro-North Railroad South Norwalk station about 6:25PM amidst the remnants of what appeared to be a powerful thunderstorm. It was still raining hard and the sky was nearly black. Once I entered the station it was apparent that there was no power. It could not have been the first time that had ever happened.

As commuters like me trudged under the tracks in the underground passageway it was dark – nearly pitch black with only the light from people’s mobile phones to act as small beacons (pretty ineffective I might add). Since there was no power there were no elevators (of course I was parked on the 5th floor of the garage). I immediately thought about the handicapped – how a handicapped person would not even be able to get into the station much less get upstairs without an elevator.

Once I reached my car I headed toward the spiral down ramp in my attempt to exit. Except that I quickly realized the exit gate was not going to work since there was no power. I realized that when I was stopped on the ramp behind in between a sea of cars. We sat there for about 15 minutes – nowhere to go. Finally the cars started moving but in order to get out we had to go the wrong way (out the in) and I was hoping that there were no cars attempting to enter the parking facility.

During the entire episode I kept thinking how could the parking authority (a seemingly contradictory term!) not have a contingency plan for power outages? Didn’t they have a backup generator? What would have happened if it were totally dark outside? To say the situation was unsafe was an understatement.
In business it’s impossible to think of everything. But when it comes to keeping your customers safe, and considering the ramifications of things like a power outage (it’s not like they NEVER happen), it’s unconscionable to allow for an outcome like that which I experienced.

It shouldn’t be that difficult should it?

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When you think as a leader you are above the law – think again

Posted on June 9, 2011 by markkolier

Dominique Strauss-Khan, Elliot Spitzer, Mark Sanford, and more recently Anthony Weiner. My guess is those four names conjure up a pretty clear idea in your mind of what they have in common. All of them are ‘leaders’ who somehow believed that their actions (both legal and illegal) could be glossed over due to their status and position. All of them were dead wrong.

What makes a person believe that they won’t be caught? Moreover, what makes a person feel that if the do get caught they will be able to skate through unscathed? If you (as I do) believe that first and foremost a leader leads by example, it seems incomprehensible that anyone could do the incredibly short-sighted and stupid things the ‘not-so Fab Four’ have done.

But there’s more to their stories than that. Too add insult to injury all of them had the same knee jerk reaction once their transgressions became public. They denied them and lied about them. This is not exactly the type of behavior that would make your constituents, employees and team members want to line up behind you in staunch support. Any chance they had to save a little self-respect (and pain for their loved ones and families) is inexorably lost once they went down the path of denial, only to double back and admit that in fact they were lying and now they are sorry.

What if Congressman Weiner had admitted from the moment it became public that he took the photos, he sent the tweets, and he was very sorry for his stupid and thoughtless actions. People would have shaken their heads, his wife would still have been thoroughly embarrassed but at least he would have dealt with it up front and perhaps offered himself a chance to mend the wounds as well as rebuild confidence in his professional life. To me, that chance is completely lost now.

Leaders come in many different forms. They share a common bond and that is the expectation that they have the best interests of their teams, constituents, families and friends in mind at all times. It is at times a very heavy responsibility particularly when things are not going well. But that comes with the territory and whether you are a corporate leader, politician, professional athlete, entertainer or a parent (yes parents may be the most important leaders overall), it’s critically important to keep in mind that your actions speak much louder than words and if you think you might be able to get away with something you should strongly think again.

For instance, let’s say that you are a seven-time Tour de France winner and the leader of a foundation that has done and continues to do so much for so many people. Let’s also say that many of the riders that rode with you claim you used performance enhancing drugs. You vehemently deny the accusations citing the fact that you never have failed a drug test. (Marion Jones the U.S. Olympic track and field star claimed the same for years – until recently). Everyone hopes your denials are true.

Are you listening Lance Armstrong?

Posted in Communication, Living in the World Today | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

A great example of how a website can get it right and then get it wrong

Posted on June 8, 2011 by markkolier

Since I am a busy person and am not much of a shopper (more the type of buyer that walks into a store to buy what he came for and then walks out), shopping on the web is a great option for me. During the holidays I, like so many people, relish every opportunity to not have to fight the store crowd to purchase gifts.

My estimation is that more than 75% of the time I shop online. I have fairly high confidence that my credit card info will not be stolen (it used to be higher), and that the right goods will be shipped to me in a reasonable amount of time if I’ve not specified a special delivery.

So when I noticed that I was running low on after shave/cologne and realized that I had no time to go to the store I decided to try shopping for it online. It seems to me that very few men would go out of their way go to the store specifically to buy men’s cologne as it is the kind of thing you pick up when you are at the mall or department store shopping for other things and you remember to buy some so you won’t have to make a special trip.

Since I am an Amazon Prime member I checked it out there first. The annual membership to Amazon Prime offers ‘free shipping’ which is actually not free since you pay $79 a year for the membership. I checked out the offerings for men’s cologne on Amazon and they had a fair amount but it was not all that well organized and a bit clunky.

I then decided to try Perfumania.com (Sephora.com was next on my list). The Perfumania.com site was well organized and easy to navigate. They were having a June special which was clearly marked on the home page. Sephora.com also looked intuitive and easy to use but there were no specials listed on the home page. I bet you can guess where I decided to shop.

The prices on Perfumania.com were lower than Amazon.com – not substantially but lower. And free shipping was offered for orders over $60. Yes I was having some second thoughts about my Amazon Prime membership. A free gift was offered as well as samples and they were having a buy one get one for half price special also (something they term BOGO which is not the greatest name I thought as its only one letter away from BOZO).

Off I went placing my order by choosing the cologne I wanted. And then I hit the wall. The site was interminably slow and when I tried to load 2 items into my shopping cart the sands of internet time just kept on spilling. When I hit refresh it took me back a page and I had to enter in all my information a second, (and then third) time! And while I did not want to pay half price for another item of the same sort,( I did like the option however), the instructions were that I would be able to do it at time of order. But I never saw the option once I FINALLY got into the shopping cart.

At last I was able to make my purchase and check out. Yet the experience which had the potential to be a very good one was undermined because of the slow and frustrating performance of the site interface.
It’s something to keep in mind – you can get everything right, but then if you drive the customer crazy by making the navigation or site process difficult you will have more than lost what you gained.

Do you have any good stories to share that illustrate what I am writing about?

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Are you ready for the imminent demise of incandescent light bulbs?

Posted on June 6, 2011 by markkolier

If you had not yet heard starting in January of 2012, light bulbs have to be at least 25% more efficient than the ones we’ve been using for years invented by Thomas Edison way back in 1879. Bulbs that have been inexpensive and disposable will be disappearing by 2014. An excellent article last week by Gwendolyn Bounds of the Wall Street Journal http://on.wsj.com/lpUdSB outlines the features and benefits of the new and old bulb technologies.

In our discussions with Chinese companies we’ve explored the idea of helping them bring LED light bulbs into the United States. So far there has been a great deal of hesitancy on the part of the Chinese companies we have met with to lead with LED light bulbs to be marketed to American consumers. Part of the reason is that sales of building-wide lighting systems are substantially larger and easier than selling individual light bulbs to individual American consumers. However we firmly believe (as the article supports) Americans will be VERY receptive to LED light bulbs once the prices come down which they are predicted to do in a relatively short time. It is our belief that direct-to-consumer marketing of LED light bulbs would allow for lower pricing to happen even more quickly.

Compact Fluorescent Bulbs (CFL’s) have been a step in the right direction but as I have noted before (link to your previous blog post) the trace amounts of mercury found in them is of great concern and for the most part they are not dimmable which is a major drawback. That they are odd-looking unless housed in an outer bulb is more of a minor issue.

The current pricing for LED light bulbs are $20-$55 each. This is in stark contrast to traditional incandescent bulbs which are priced at 25-50 cents each or even CFL’s which average $2 to $5. We are talking 100 times the cost here! The life spans of LED are not 100 times as long as traditional incandescent – more like 25-30 times. The annual operating costs of LED bulbs however are less than 25% per bulb as compared to traditional incandescent bulbs.

Once prices for LED bulbs come down into the $10/bulb or less range the idea that they last 25 times longer and use less energy will have people clamoring to buy them. And they will have to come down in price since I wonder about how people will feel when they drop and break a $20 or even $50 bulb. Dropping and breaking a $ 0.50 bulb is mess. Dropping a $ 20 or even $ 50 bulb is a catastrophe!

What would it take for you to ‘switch’ over to an LED bulb? Is there a price threshold? Would you miss 132-year old technology?

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What if I wanted a tablet that wasn’t an iPad?

Posted on June 2, 2011 by markkolier

They’re everywhere – iPads. On the train to New York City, on planes, all over the globe I see people using them more and more. As yet I have not succumbed to Apple or any other tablet maker.

Part of my hesitancy in general has to do with the monthly charges that come with tablets when not using Wi-Fi. It appears to range from $ 15 – $ 25/month depending on usage. I am well aware of iPad’s Wi-Fi connectivity. I am also aware of the geographic limitations of that same connectivity. Having used an iPad a few times it is an impressive piece of technology.

There are alternatives. The most recent effort is from RIM (maker of Blackberry) called ‘Playbook’. The website ‘Digital trends’ has listed a number of them and reviews have been lukewarm. And the cost for a supplemental data plan from Sprint can be $ 30 per month. PC magazine recently did a review of iPad alternatives – http://bit.ly/l2R0yB, There are indeed a number of options but none really that have been deemed a worthy competitor to the iPad as yet.

At Computex in Taipei Tuesday, some new models were introduced. A company called Asustek offered the ‘Padfone’ to be released in time for Christmas. Already there are countless tablets currently on the market – Dell has a ‘Mini 5’, HP the ‘Slate’, Lenovo the ‘U1’, Archos (I had not heard of this) the ‘Archos 9’, Asustek the ‘Eee Pad Transformer’, Acer the ‘Iconia Tab A500’, Gateway has the ‘EC18T’, HTC the ‘Flyer’, Motorola the ‘Xoom’, Samsung has the ‘Galaxy Tab’, and of course Barnes and Noble has been making noise with the ‘Nook’ which is not really a tablet as it only has WiFi connectivity Many of the newer tablets are running on Google’s Android platform. As for other tablets there are more and I could go on but won’t.
Since I still read newspapers (3 of them daily) the idea that I could get them delivered on my tablet is interesting but then I remember that my wife and I both like to share and read the newspaper in the morning (at least when I am not traveling) and tablets are not really ‘sharable’. And subscriptions to iPad content while less expensive than print content are not all that less expensive.

I don’t see myself watching many movies on a tablet – I simply do not have the time nor interest. It could be useful when traveling and a downloaded movie could be played on the hotel television but I am guessing that hotels are on to that idea and will disallow Fire Wire or connection to the television so as not to cannibalize their usurious charges for in-room movies (really – $ 14.99 for a movie in a small hotel room?).

I’ve seen my associates use the iPad to deliver PowerPoint and other presentations and that’s kind of cool as tablets are much lighter and more portable. But I remain on the fence. Will I really use a tablet? Will it be a replacement for a laptop (you can purchase a foldout keyboard for a tablet so there is a way to not have to type on the screen which seems like a big pain in the neck to me)? Or will a tablet purchase add to the technology I lug around – mobile phone, laptop, extra batteries, cords and such?

I think I am getting closer to purchasing a tablet and at this point the iPad still is the clear front runner. It still bugs me that Apple does not support Flash and HTML5 is still not ready for prime time. But until a clear alternative emerges I am likely to watch the tablet game from the sidelines.

Ok all you iPad and other tablet owners – let me know what I am missing.

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